Software + Tools
Vehicle emissions, fuel use, electricity and energy consumption are affected by a range of vehicle and powertrain design factors. Forecasting therefore requires a detailed breakdown and classification of the on-road fleet. The Australian Fleet Model (AFM) is specifically designed to provide fleet data at the level of detail required for vehicle emissions and energy simulation.
The Australian Fleet Model was first developed in 2013 with annual updates and provides detailed estimates of the on-road vehicle population and associated travel (VKT, accumulated mileage) for over 15,000 vehicle classes, including the five fundamental technologies (ICEV, HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCEV) for individual base years (e.g. 2010-2060).
AFM is run for individual states and territories or for Australia as a whole. The software can output the modelling results in specific predefined formats, including COPERT Australia and n0vem.
Since 2022, AFM includes a future scenario builder option (plausible trajectories) that uses statistical optimisation and considers historic vehicle sales data and relevant theory (e.g. diffusion of innovation theory - DIT) with curve fitting flexibility to accommodate deviations from DIT.
AFM publications can be found here.